Tesla 4680 Battery
No one really knows how long Tesla 4680 battery cells last. We don’t really have any cars that have done much mileage in them, but we do have a truck that has.
There’s a Tesla semi that’s done an incredible amount of mileage, and it’s still driving around.
It gives us some perspective on whether or not 4680 battery cells are actually any good.
Tesla Semi and Mileage Performance
Now, there has been a few Tesla fires lately in Tesla semis.
I don’t know why that is, but we also do know that 4680 battery cells have never actually had a fire at all that we know of in any Tesla Model Ys that they went into when they were being built in the factory in Texas.
What’s going on here? They obviously use the 4680 battery cell, and so far, they’ve been really good.
I don’t think there’s been any Cybertruck fires that have occurred from malfunctions. None that I’ve seen anyway.
there’s been a couple, though. I believe two Tesla Semis which have had fires. Looks like one was from an accident and the other one was… Well, no one knows what it was.
Tesla Semi-Fleet has now done more than 5 million miles and has… Well, one of those semis has done 250,000 miles more than 250,000.
I mean, that’s a hell of a lot of driving. It shows you that actually they’re better than you think.
Now, apparently, Tesla is going to ramp up to production numbers. Their goal is to do 50,000 semis per year. 50,000 per year, that’s a pretty significant number.
That would mean that they might end up getting around 10% of the US semis Semi-market, 10-20% yearly. Pretty good number.
Sleeper cabs
Now, one of the challenges for Tesla’s semis is they don’t have sleeper cabs, so you can’t sleep in them. You can only sit in them.
Obviously, for longer-range semis, you do need a sleeper cab. Otherwise, they don’t really work.
But Tesla say that they designed the semi to be easily converted into a sleeper cab. Now, one of the cool things about the Tesla semi is the range.
It’s a fair bit longer than you expect. In fact, Tesla demonstrated, and not just Tesla, but it was demonstrated at the IAA, Transportation Trade Show, that the semi can do more than 500 miles of range, which is massive.
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Don’t know what size the battery pack is, though. Now, here’s the thing. So far, 100 semis have done more than 4.8 million miles on the roads in the United States over the last two years.
That means on average, each one of them has done 46,000 miles, but there is one version or one model that’s done 248,000 miles after only one and a half years.
I don’t know how this happened. I mean, imagine how often it must have been driven. 248,000 miles in one and a half years.
This thing was driving an average of 500 miles every single day. So luckily, they can charge really quickly.
Efficiency and Charging Capabilities
Now, I don’t know the charging speeds that people are charging them at in the US, but they are made to be able to charge at a top speed of 1 gigawatt, which is 999 kilowatt plus an extra one kilowatt.
You’re looking at one gigawatt charging speed. Tesla claims in its presentation in Germany that the semi has an energy efficiency of 100 kilowatt-hours per 100 kilometers, meaning the energy efficiency is about 10 times higher, a little bit less than 10 times higher.
Tesla’s Ambitious Production Goals
Let’s just say around about nine higher than a Tesla Model 3. That’s actually really good. It means that 1.6 kilowatt-hours are used for every mile of travel.
That’s a 20% improvement over what Tesla advertise on their website.
But the semi is actually quite an efficient vehicle. Obviously, part of that is the 4680 battery cells.
Global Impact and Market Growth
Now, importantly, Tesla have apparently begun manufacturing the 4680 cell with the new dry coating process.
That will help Tesla to make cheaper batteries, but But also you’ve got Panasonic, Samsung, and LG Chem who are making 4680 battery cells, too.
That should help Tesla ramp up to their 50,000 production goal.
Now, apparently, Tesla is seeing 95% uptime with the semi, including down time for service and maintenance, and the electric rig can replace, therefore, a diesel Class 8 truck, one for one.
Consider it’s capable of traveling 1,000 miles in a day with several high-speed charging sessions. So 1,000 miles in a day.
I mean, that’s 1,600 kilometers in a day. I think if that’s true, and apparently it is, people are saying it is, then it is legitimately a real vehicle you can use to replace a diesel Class 8 large semi.
Tesla Semi and the Future of Transportation
Now, here’s the thing. Tesla is saying they’re going to make 50,000 of these per year in the US.
But apparently, the semi is actually able to be registered in Europe. It was adapted for European regulation, and it’s street legal in Europe.
Technically, it’s not street legal in Australia because we have these weird regulations here, but it’s street legal in Europe.
I think Tesla is probably planning on making these semis at their gigantech a factory expansion in Germany.
Tesla is going to build a second gig factory right next to this. This is the one all the protesters have been fighting against and doing all the crazy stuff, trying to set Tesla’s factory on fire, setting Tesla cars on fire.
Anyhow, they’re trying to stop this new factory from being built.
Electric semi
Now, I think it’s a huge positive to have an electric semi or electric semi in place of a diesel semi.
In fact, I think it’s an immense positive, especially in a place like Germany, where such a huge percentage of energy there is renewable energy.
In fact, Germany has hit About 65%, as in 65% of the energy used in Germany is now renewables, which is amazing. That’s Tesla’s goal.
Obviously, they plan to go global with the semi.
Canada, the US, and Europe, I believe, will be next Within the next couple of years, 4680 battery cells, obviously, they need a lot of these to make this happen.
That’s probably one of the reasons why Panasonic, LG, Chem, and Samsung are being so confident to go ahead and start manufacturing large numbers of 4680 battery cells.
This is going to really drive the market towards electric trucks, and I think that’s just a huge improvement.
Other Company
Now, Tesla is not the only company doing this. Volvo also have a Class 8 semi now that’s capable of a similar range.
So electric trucks are disrupting internal combustion or diesel trucks.
Keep in mind, diesel truck costs are very, very high, much, much higher to run a diesel truck than it is an electric one.
There’s this other big advantage of electric trucks. Those include they are so much quieter and so much easier to drive.
When I say easier to drive, have you seen how slow diesel trucks are? Right? Many hills, you’ll be in a highway, a freeway.
The diesel truck will be going up that hill, maybe 20, 30 miles an hour, really struggling. I think that’s dangerous.
I mean, you come around a corner and all of a sudden there’s a vehicle in front of you on a road that’s 70 miles an hour, 110 kilometers an hour, and it’s going less than half the posted speed limit.
average speed
Electric trucks, though, can get up these gradients at the average speed of other vehicles. They can do 110 miles an hour, 110 kilometers an hour in a 110 zone.
They can do 75 miles an hour, no problems up steep hills. That’s a huge safety advantage.
It’s also quicker. Considering many roads have lots of gradients, lots hills, it would mean an electric truck could get to its destination significantly faster.
Now, yes, it’s true, you’d have to charge it.
But if that truck lasts for 500 miles, and if you’re only legally allowed to drive for four hours nonstop in a truck anyway, which is the case in most places around the world, four hours, then you have to stop half an hour, then four hours, that means you got plenty of time to charge in that half an hour, back on the road for four hours.
In theory, you would be much, much faster than a diesel-powered vehicle at a much lower cost.
The other thing is, how many diesel trucks are there that can do 250,000 miles in a year and a half? That seems amazing.